Tuesday, June 27, 2017

The Age of Robos is Coming and So What? #Sociology #Science

More than likely everyone is aware the Age of Robos is coming but really it's a misnomer since that Age has been around for some while; it's the Age of Intelligent Robos which gets people jittery.  The biggest concern is whether the robo will take my job so we will go straight to the numbers.

The least safe jobs

Chance of automation 99%
Loan officer
Chance of automation 98%
Chance of automation 97%
Paralegal and legal assistant
Chance of automation 94%
Taxi driver
Chance of automation 89%
Fast food cook
Chance of automation 81%

The Guardian:  What jobs will still be around in 20 years? Read this to prepare your future

Those ones look like fair calls here at the Rockhouse.  Any type of repetitive job is an obvious candidate for a robo and many of those have previously been Rockhouse predictions but the Loan officer was a little strange.  However, it makes sense since there's nothing personal about getting a loan; you either meet the credit criteria or you don't.

The paralegal also looks like an unusual candidate but we really don't know what they do except it must be whatever lawyers don't want to do.  That still doesn't tell us much except those jobs are likely to poof.

We've heard reams about automated vehicles for taxi services so no surprises there but the Fast food cook is a bit awkward at first.  Copping a burger from Robo Elsie at McDonald's in the future just isn't exciting my French fries too much.

Ed:  burgers don't excite you anyway

Good point

- Infer the segue to Big Sociology of the First Part since these changes will displace a whole lot of workers and begin or force the drive to a Guaranteed Universal Income.  However, a leap from the bottom of that chart to a GUI is a bit extreme so we will stay steady to the course for the moment.

In concert with evaporation of those jobs, there are eighty thousand or so coal miners who are just now pretending they have a future but you know they don't.  The problem with them as with those addressed in the charts isn't so much that they don't have jobs but they don't know how to do anything anyone particularly needs.

You know how it goes in the Personnel Office:  "Tell me what you can do, kid."

You need to have some items at your ready disposal or that's going to be a short job interview.  No need to flog it since you know already.

From the John Oliver episode about miners, we learned of programs to help displaced miners learn skills they could apply outside mining.  They featured one young man who had learned half a dozen computer languages and was starting to make his way.  I know a wealth of computer languages, none of which I'm willing to write anymore, but I don't know the languages he has learned.  Bon voyage, kid.  I hope your journey is a good one.

- Infer Big Sociology of the Second Part since the myopic approach to education in America, as agreed in every Comment here on Ithaka, needs some major work to be effective.  The idea of one-size-fits-all at university is bloody rubbish and, we maintain, destructive insofar as it's a clear fact many are suited better for other things.  We got well past any elitist aspect of that ages ago since we want the best educational match for a kid, regardless of whichever medium presents it. -

How about we turn this around to see which jobs they consider safe.

The safest jobs

Mental health and substance abuse social worker
Chance of automation 0.3%
Occupational therapist
Chance of automation 0.35%
Dietitian and nutritionist
Chance of automation 0.39%
Physician and surgeon
Chance of automation 0.42%
Chance of automation 0.81%

Social workers of that nature need a high degree of empathy and there's nothing we have seen in vague discussions of AI robos learning about love which leads us to believe an authentic empathic response is realistically predictable any time soon.

Occupational therapist is similar to a social worker but with more specific skills plus the same requirement for empathy.

The Dietitian needs a high degree of empathy as well since people may present after they have made real messes of themselves so it will take strength to get past that to discover how to bring some help and good advice, etc.

The Rockhouse doesn't have any particular question with the safety of those jobs.

However ...

It was only yesterday I wrote any article about a robo surgeon doing better, less-invasive work for dealing with rectal cancer than was possible by an unassisted human.  Note:  this was not AI but rather the robo was directed by a human surgeon.  (Ithaka:  Greater Surgical Precision using Robotic Surgery #Science #Medicine)

There's all kinds of doctorin' and the Empath is the GP ... or s/he is not likely to be a good GP.  It's tough to predict how robos will play with this audience but the evidence is already clear there will be quite a bit of it.

As to automating clergy, there are few things which would be easier.  The Big Temple preachers could be snuffed overnight since there's little to no human engagement; they're just making a pitch to TV cameras.  Max Headroom could take them in one round.  Good night, Irene.

The clergy robos won't be able to replace any time soon are the preachers who go out to a little white church in the woods near Nashville and they preach to a congregation of, at most, thirty or forty people.  If a robo preacher will do well out there, that robo better be able to sing.  The robo also better be able to dance because if the robo ain't feelin' it then why should I be believin' it.

People seem to take so much fear about things but we don't see they're all that different.  Even when we got out of uni, we still didn't know how to do a damn thing but we weaseled our way into various things and, what do you know, here we are these many years later.

Miscellaneous sidenote:  regardless of the shit we've been through and some have been through way more than we ever thought, none of us call ourselves survivors.  It's just life and it fuckin' happens.  Am I right, mates?  Of course I am (larfs).


Laughing Gecko said...

Blogger ? %

Peas InOurThyme said...

Well, there's really no way to be sure I'm not a robo since ELIZA was playing computer therapist although not too well by the early 80s.

As always, the trick isn't so much to convince others I'm real but rather to convince myself. Ha!