Friday, June 9, 2017

Sixty Percent Increase in Electric Cars in a Year #Science

© Dimitar Dilkoff / AFP

Maybe such signs are known in California but I have not seen one in the limited Fort Worth area I travel.

The global stock of electric vehicles hit two million in 2016, a 60 percent surge from the previous year, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency (IEA).

The current increase in sales of electric cars is mostly influenced by the policy environment, according to the IEA.

The biggest market last year was China with 336,000 vehicles sold.

Chinese buyers get exemptions from certain taxes, as well as waivers from license plate restrictions.

“China was by far the largest electric car market, accounting for more than 40 percent of the electric vehicles sold in the world and more than double the amount sold in the United States,” the report says.

European countries sold 215,000 electric vehicles in 2016, led by Norway, the Netherlands, Sweden, France and the UK.

RT:   Electric car sales double with China leading the way

The context is #Science because it's based on a numerical study and that's close enough for this topic.

The put up or shut up position has been posted here multiple times and we observe China is making and selling more of these cars than anywhere else.

We also observe Detroit is still narrowly-focused on beasts for surviving the Great Flood since they have an inordinate fascination with huge SUVs, huge pickup trucks, or just general hugeness with the most conspicuous consumption possible.

America can put that rolling stock up as much as it likes but it won't work when many of them are too big for many Euro streets.

There's emphasis in related articles that electric vehicles have only reached a tiny level of the overall market but that's too myopic for magnificence since the interest is the trend.  Globally, electric cars are bangin' like Boomtown rats while Hogmobiles wallow about unclear about a whole lot except where's the next fueling station.

I did notice in the report hybrid vehicles don't do so well and that's really not so surprising when they're somewhat better about consumption but must be maintenance hellholes with much more which can go wrong and good luck fixing it.

The Rockhouse loves internal combustion and we really love the sound as destructive as it may be.  Nevertheless, it's over but it's dying hard ... and dying smelly since catalytic converters don't clean the exhaust fumes; they only make them somewhat less poisonous.

There's not any aspect of the put up I have suggested lately which could not be done tomorrow if America had the will do it.  Like it or not as you will but the Future will come and it only gets amused when you fight it.

The Rockhouse digs it because we like the effect of, well, that's unusual isn't it.


Anonymous said...

The biggest issue with electric/hybrid is battery degradation.
Most hybrids battery need replacing at about 125000 miles at an average cost $4000. Even Telsa has this problem but the upper level battery has an unlimited mileage warranty but how many buyers have $80000 to buy it
And as with all energy sources there is a downside. With we trip it would be recycling the batteries.
And the type of fuel producing the electricity. With China consuming 50% of the world's coal, leading in electric cars is a start but not significant since it is tiny percentage of their total number of cars.
And with the US relaxing coal standards charging those cars will be dirtier than ever in this country.
PS my hybrid truck gets 25mpg better than most cars on the market today. It does this through and 8 speed transmission. It also turns itself off at a traffic light of in a traffic jam restarts as soon as I take my foot off the brake.
This is not to defend the use of a nine passenger SUV to drive to the supermarket but to state most of the new "hogmobiles" are not the gas guzzlers you portray them to be

Peas InOurThyme said...

In general, I hear a now perspective in your Comment more than an anticipation of change. China has agreed to the Paris Accord which doesn't leave a whole lot of room for coal burning in the future and they've had it in their faces for years with the smog in Beijing. They do seem to be moving forward with trying to electrify everything from buses to trains.

I don't think comparing cost of ownership for the life of the vehicle has a strong value since there's likely to be substantive change in that as production increases, etc. Standard market forces apply, prices go down, etc. For example, home computers were impossibly expensive not so long ago.

Overall, my biggest problem is with coal as an energy source which makes no sense whatsoever for electric vehicles or much of anything, for that matter.

I know some of those SRT vehicles bring mileage way down, maybe even to single digits. The more mass to the vehicle, the more energy it will take to push it; there's no way to beat the physics. The SRT vehicles don't care about mileage since they have to be the baddest but there's still a whole lot more metal rolling about that is really necessary.

Anonymous said...

How are you charging the electric vehicles mostly coal fired plants
some hydro power some nuclear.
Doesn't matter how clean the car is until you clean the initial power source.
SRT vehicles are performance based vehicles. My example of a truck requires size but utilizes new technology to reduce the footprint as much as possible

Anonymous said...

You miss my point on the battery lifespan and replacement cost.
Even at only 100 million vehicles, we would have to disposed of 20million batteries a year containing 150lbs of lithium.
And there is the amount of reserves of lithium needed to make 100 million batteries per year. Not to mention the 100 Telsa gigafactories needed to make them .
While electric is a decent start, solving the clean fuel to charge them and the disposal of the batteries and the replacement for lithium once it runs out.
I believe Elon probably has more answers for these problems but it would be foolish for him to release them and give up his competitive edge on the future.

Peas InOurThyme said...

It's a fair point but you also mentioned Tesla has a lifetime battery for big bucks. It seems that must be the standard or it will fail for the reason you gave with disposal.

I don't know how much Lithium is available or will be and that could be a severe limiting factor. Perhaps modern alchemists will come up with a way to make more since it's an extremely simple element. No chance that's useful in a near time frame.

There's nothing America builds faster than factories when it's of a mind to do it. The points you mention are valid but I suspect they're surmountable.

The Rockhouse doesn't have a problem with nukes for the driving energy but that's only if the waste materials are stored correctly and right now they are not.

Peas InOurThyme said...

No point in denying modern vehicles get better mileage but there's still the basic physics that it takes more to move a big beast in the first place.

Peas InOurThyme said...

I've been doing some reading and will likely do another article focused on the Lithium. The logic in another article is much as presented above with that prosaic manner in which you have this much Lithium, you consume it this fast, so how long does it last. That should be a good foundation for writing further.

Anonymous said...

Lithium runs out in 20 years or so at 100 million units per year.
A lifetime warranty just means the company replaces it for free. Not that it lasts forever
Some time you need a big beast but not to go to the supermarket
No clean disposal of nuke material either.

Peas InOurThyme said...

I've been reading up on it in the background as to estimated reserves, etc and will likely write a follow-up to this one since Lithium appears the greatest limiting factor. In another context, it doesn't flip my skirt up when astronomers keep finding extrasolar planets but there's still no way to think about getting to them.

Peas InOurThyme said...

There's now a follow-up to this at Is There Enough Lithium for All the Green Dreams #Science