Friday, February 24, 2017

Dieting Success Predicted by Twitter Activity - Science

From the first word, this idea sounds like something direct from the flimsy news factory but there's a surprising amount of common sense to it.  In general, Twitter reveals the attitudes of people and those attitudes are accurately predictive of success from dieting.  (Science Daily:  Likelihood of dieting success lies within your tweets)

Ed:  is flimsy news the same as fake news?

No.  Fake news is a statement which is such rubbish no sensible person would believe it (e.g. GoldenShowerGate) and that sort of thing goes to CNN whereas flimsy news goes anywhere.


Here's the pitch:

There is a direct link between a person's attitude on social media and the likelihood that their dieting efforts will succeed.

In fact, Georgia Institute of Technology researchers have determined that dieting success - or failure -- can be predicted with an accuracy rate of 77 percent based on the sentiment of the words and phrases one uses on Twitter.

- RT

With a gambling success rate of 77%, you could own Vegas in a week so it appears their algorithm either works or their measurements are inaccurate.


"We see that those who are more successful at sticking to their daily dieting goals express more positive sentiments and have a greater sense of achievement in their social interactions," said Assistant Professor Munmun De Choudhury, who is lead researcher on the project. "They are focused on the future, generally more social and have larger social networks."

Words and phrases like "Train smart like a trainer...win like 6 time champion [sic]," "If your not failing your not trying hard enough...[sic]," and "If we never stumble we never fall. If we never fall we never fail, and if we never fail we never grow!" are some examples of the upbeat and self-reflective language the research indicates is most common to successful dieters.

- RT

There's common sense to it since that attitude seems like it would do the best and there's a secondary benefit for some insofar as it shows the dieter's spelling and grammar have little to do with dietary success or failure.

Ed:  you just have to think positive thoughts?

It does seem so, yes.


Here are the observations regarding those less likely to achieve dieting success.

As for those who are not successful in meeting dietary goals, their Twitter content often has a demonstrably negative tone and they tend to be more uneasy and fearful in their posts.

"These users tend to be more anxious seemingly because of a lack of emotional control, and because of certain activities and events of daily life," said De Choudhury.

Sample posts here include, "I'm pretty sure I'm going to lose my mind. Completely lose what little is left. I cry at the thought of stupid things..." and "Feel rough as old boots this morning :/ Ankle hurts, shin hurts, chest hurts, head hurts."

- RT

That last paragraph describes the type of depressive who is quite common on social networks where obesity is rampant.  My sample size isn't large enough for science but almost everyone I have net whom I first encountered on a social network has been heavily overweight and shockingly so.

Talk of dieting isn't common on social networks but it does occur and the ones likely to succeed are usually highly-motivated, often from the fear of death after a doctor has advised 'lose it or you will die.'  That aspect motivates the willingness to go for it but the positive attitude toward doing it shows and that attracts supporters.

When someone is working it to lose the weight, I'll be right there with encouragement.  You go, brother / sister.  You can do it.  I'm sincere about it and I hope they make it.

So, do you suppose depressives alienate those who might otherwise help them achieve success.


"These areas have been individually observed to glean health indicators," explained De Choudhury. "However, considering these data sources together and applying an established causality testing methodology allows us to validate for the very first time the efficacy of social media and quantified self-sensing in revealing risk to diet compliance."

- RT

Ed:  that was impressive, wasn't it!

Well, not really since it only said the same as was said already with poofier words.  Scientists should usually stick to science rather than writing.


Here's where it turns strange.

In future, De Choudhury suggested the new analytical method could be pushed forward to provide greater health and wellbeing benefits.

"For instance, by temporally aligning social media, quantified self sensing and self-reported attributes, statistical models may be able to explore dynamics of events around when or how soon an individual's diet is likely to fail," said De Choudhury. "This would allow for proactive measures to be taken to help ensure more positive health outcomes."

- RT

Since this algorithm / protocol only works on Twitter then presumably all dieters should use Twitter so the science can work?  Everything from the article was common sense except, well, that last part.  If Twitter is required for dietary success, you have a bigger problem than an excess of calories.

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